Rain, Rumors, and Rivals: What to Watch at The 2025 Belgian Grand Prix
In remembrance of Anthoine Hubert
After a 2 week drought of Formula 1 races, we’re finally back at Spa-Francorchamps, one of the most iconic circuits in the world. This year, we are in for a treat - the added sprint race, unpredictable weather, and huge shakeups in the paddock will make the race as chaotic as ever. As we head closer to silly season, here are the storylines to watch this weekend—and how I see the race shaking out.
💥 Red Bull’s Comeback or Collapse?
The sacking of Christian Horner, former Oracle Redbull Racing’s Team Principal & CEO, came as a surprise to everyone two weeks ago. Well, maybe not the decision itself—Horner has long been entangled in controversy and internal Red Bull power struggles. It was more so the timing of it all. During the season (not even during the summer break), on a random Wednesday morning, a few months before the new regulations in 2026. The Redbull Racing Team has long been synonymous with Christian Horner, always playing to the limit and pushing for more. However, key personnel’s departure, from Jonathan Wheately to Adrian Newey and Rob Marshall, signified the loss of trust and downward morale of the team. It is utterly crazy to think Redbull was winning all but one race in 2023, and yet, not even two years later, we are here questioning how the team will be moving forward, especially if Max Verstappen decides to pull out of the team he has been with since the beginning of his career.
This will be the first ever weekend where Horner is not the team boss for the Austrian team, as Laurent Mekies was passed the torch to run the team. With a more technical approach to racing, it will be interesting to see how Mekies leads the team ahead of the tricky conditions and media pressure.
🔄 Maxcedes Not Happening in 2026?
Rumors of Max Verstappen to Mercedes next year have been circulating for quite a while, but ramped up significantly over the last few weeks. It’s no secret that Toto Wolff, CEO & Team Principal of Mercedes, has been toying with the idea of bringing in the four-time world champion to the silver arrows. Verstappen, on the other hand, had been quick to shut down the rumors in the past. When asked about where he would end up next year this time, though, he seems less assertive, but did state he would like to finish his career with one team. Sources close to the Verstappen camp have also confirmed the Dutchman’s future is not set in stone yet.
With the new regulation changes, many around the paddock believe Mercedes will have the upper hand in engine development next year. Redbull is partnering with Ford to work on their power unit, but we have not heard many positive remarks regarding their progress. Naturally, this makes Mercedes a very desirable place to be in 2026. The problem at hand is that Mercedes has invested heavily in both George Russell and Kimi Antonelli’s careers, so keeping them where they are seems natural. But if Max Verstappen becomes available on the market, the narrative changes. In the past, Toto Wolff and Mercedes were notorious for being conservative with drivers’ contract extensions. As seen with Lewis Hamilton’s move to Ferrari, the driver’s market may shake up completely if anything happens between Verstappen, Russell, Antonelli, and Mercedes.
Wolff came forth in an interview today, claiming there will likely be no “big surprises” and that the team’s priority is to keep Russell and Antonelli for next year. The team boss also claimed that everyone is informed, but does not rule out the possibility of Verstappen joining in 2027. We often say there are no rumors in the paddock, and that when there’s smoke, there’s fire”. But we probably will not get a clear picture until the summer break, whether these chatters had merit to them, or were they merely a power play from Toto Wolff to bargain on Russell’s contract, and a lobbying tactic from Verstappen to Redbull. Was all the chaos, even the photoshopped Sardinia photos, for nothing after all?
☔ Weather Chaos Incoming?
Spa-Francorchamps is infamous for its unpredictable weather, and this race week seems no different. With predicted rain throughout the race weekend, we might not even see much of the jump mix of slick tires Pirelli brought in. The last time we had a wet-dry-wet-dry crazy conditioned race was almost three weeks ago in Silverstone, which feels like ages ago. Nico Hulkenberg stepped on the elusive podium for the first time in his 239 race starts; all of the rookies, except for Ollie Bearman were out; Max Verstappen drove a rally car with Monza specs in raining Silverstone; Oscar Piastri’s erratic braking caused him to lose the win, which meant Lando Norris took home his maiden home race victory.
Strategies, car setups, and driver instincts will all come into play this week. With the Sprint format, teams have less time to understand the conditions around the track. We hope to see a mix of approaches and smart racing this time around (2021 Spa… we don’t want to talk about it). Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri are now neck in neck in the championship fight. How they’ll stack up this time is one of the biggest questions heading into the weekend.
🚀 Upgrades to Watch
As we approached the halfway point of the season, most teams are shifting their focus to 2026. The upgrades teams are bringing to Spa and Hungary might be the last wave of big updates for the 2025 season. One team to watch out for is Ferrari, as they recently had a filming/ testing day in Mugello to test out their new rear suspension. The team in red reported positive findings from this upgrade and is looking to be more competitive through the latter half of the season. As we get closer to Monza, Ferrari and Fred Vasseur are under pressure to deliver something that will put them closer to the top step of the podium. A competitive car that allows for a Leclerc and Hamilton masterclass is what they are hoping for.
Helmut Marko said Redbull will be bringing upgrades to Spa and Hungary, to bring Redbull closer to the McLarens and be more competitive with the likes of Mercedes and Ferrari. These upgrades are also a way to prove to Verstappen that the team still knows how to build and improve the car. Keep an eye on Aston Martin, Williams, and a few more teams that are bringing in new parts for the weekend.
📊 My Race Predictions
It’s raining and it’s Spa, which means you can never count out Max Verstappen, who adores the track and thrives in the wet. He has taken many pole positions with huge margins here in the past, but always had to start down in the order due to engine change grid penalties. While I do not believe the RB21 has the race pace to compete with the McLarens, Max will probably put up a good fight. Oscar has also been great around this track, better than Lando, I will say, so I have predicted him to win and extend his championship lead this weekend. George Russell had an excellent drive here last time around, but unfortunately got disqualified due to his car being underweight. Will he put on a masterclass performance again despite rumors around his contract?
Williams has been on a terrible run of form as of late, but something in me is saying the cooling package upgrade will make both Albon and Sainz finish in the points. And who does not want to see Hulk continue his streak?
Sprint Pole Position: Max Verstappen
Sprint Race Winner: 🏆Max Verstappen
Pole Position: Max Verstappen
Race Winner: 🏆Oscar Piastri
Podium: 🥇Oscar Piastri 🥈Lando Norris 🥉Max Verstappen
Dark Horse: Nico Hulkenburg
Wildcard Prediction: Double points for Williams
Drop your predictions in the comments or reply—who’s your wildcard for Spa? I’ll be back with full race reactions post-Sunday—see you then.
